| Written by MEDIUM.COM It is obvious that Ethiopia is planning to be a REGIONAL POWER not by default by a deliberately designed strategy. It is working at it. Inspite of its internal instability and re- calibration what reagional activists: political and civil must be aware of is at the center of this new and overt push for regional integration and inclusiveness( medemerization) is a furious need to emerge as a linch pin powerhouse of the Horn Region- the ultimate aim is to to turn Ethiopia into a REGIONAL POWER. The excessive enflunce of UAE & Saudi Arabia has truly shaken the Ethiopian leadership under Hailemariam from the slumbering mutated, disoriented and humbled existance under the onslaught of the Arab intrusion into the Horn Region. Helpless the Hailemariam leadership couldn’t protest vigorously nor could do anything to avert the aggressive intrusion. It could only make few rhetorical statements without any force or deep commitment to back it up. It was exposed. The revolution has forced the Ethiopian elite to fight for its survival and under Abiy try to aspire into a regional power with a strong gravitational pull enough to bring Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti, Sudan and Eritrea under its influence first pushing a regionalist Economic Agenda to be ultimately bring the region under some sort of confederation. The fact that US and most Western countries consider Ethiopia as an anchor nation is a well known senario. This fact has of course driven Isaias to insanity. He has been opposing and lecturing against considering Ethiopia as a pivotal power in the region. Why he is now vigorously pushing the Medemer agenda and publicly surrendering the regional leadership role to Ethiopia is a topic for another analysis. He failed to turn Eritrea into a qusai- Singapore from which he always wanted to be the mind behind Eritrea the small power house ( Horns UAE) of the Horn of Africa. He failed spectacularly. He has no choice butnto play second fiddle to Abiy now. He will make all the concession and compromise not to be left out the new regional set up to be lead by the Federalized Ethiopian State with 120 million people. He sees the writing on the wall. Now the key question is while Ethiopia has the ambition and the necessary economic and population foundation to be formidable power in the region does it have the 8 requirements expressed in this artice ( the regional power section) to be a Regional Power in 2040 or 2050? Can Abiy deliver more than the first phase of shifting from the search for equality among all the PEOPLES of Ethiopia ( affirmed by Federal Structure) to a functioning modern state projecting REAL power to convince, induce and if and when necessary project its influnce to shape the region? The 2020 election will give us a chance to see how solid the reform is and what the balnce of force will be between the forces who appreciated their regional State Power but demanded reform and those elements who want to revert to the unitary governance of One People, One Culture One goverment: a mixture of Haile Selassie’s one ethnic domination and Mengistu’s militarized ambition to bring back Eritrea and punish the Tigrians. Dr.Abiy has taken the bull by the horn. He has youth and intellegence on his side. Beyound his messianic style and PR skill how far he can ride the bull depends on more than camera friendly rhetorical skill. If he can manage the Pandora’s Box and sale his regional vision maybe he could nudge Ethiopia into a regional power: MAYBE is the key word. |