ByDylan Malyasov Mar 16, 2025

Officials and regional experts warn that longstanding tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could lead to renewed warfare, posing a significant threat to the fragile peace in the Horn of Africa.

The heightened risk follows fresh conflicts in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, raising fears of another humanitarian crisis.

Tensions have reignited following accusations by Tigrayan dissidents, who recently seized control of Adigrat, alleging betrayal by Ethiopia’s federal government. The interim administration in Tigray, in response, accused these dissidents of cooperating with Eritrea, complicating the already volatile situation.

Eritrea had previously supported Ethiopian federal forces during the brutal 2020-2022 conflict in Tigray but was notably excluded from the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which formally ended hostilities between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigrayan opposition forces. Despite this agreement mandating the withdrawal of foreign troops, Eritrea continues to maintain military personnel within Ethiopian territory.

In February 2025, Eritrea announced a nationwide military mobilization, coinciding with Ethiopia’s own troop movements toward their shared border. Experts express concern that these military maneuvers indicate preparations for direct conflict, especially given Ethiopia’s recent strategic push for Red Sea access—a development Eritrea views as a direct threat.

Further exacerbating the situation, Eritrea has entered a security pact with Egypt and Somalia, widely seen as a strategic move aimed at countering Ethiopia’s regional ambitions.

Historically, disputes between Ethiopia and Eritrea have revolved around territorial control, originating from colonial-era demarcations set by Italian and British forces. In 1950, the United Nations merged Eritrea and Ethiopia into a federation, but this status was gradually undermined by Ethiopia, leading to Eritrean calls for independence. The issue of territorial integrity is especially sensitive for Ethiopia, as Eritrean independence deprived it of direct access to the Red Sea.

The previous conflict in Tigray resulted in devastating casualties, with credible estimates surpassing 600,000 deaths. The current standoff risks reigniting a similar humanitarian catastrophe, highlighting the urgent need for diplomatic intervention and international attention to prevent further escalation.