AllAfrica

analysisBy International Crisis Group

The respected Brussels-based think tank, the International Crisis Group, has identified three conflicts in Africa as among the 10 world-wide which –  following a violence-wracked 2025 – are expected to continue and which should receive most attention in 2026. The ICG’s list of “conflicts to watch” include those affecting Ethiopia and Eritrea, Mali and Burkina Faso and Sudan. The following is the group’s analysis of the tensions which plague Ethiopia and Eritrea. (Read the ICG’s over-arching commentary on the 10 conflicts here: https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2026 )

With Sudan ablaze, a clash between two of its neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, could tip the Horn of Africa into all-out conflagration. Addis Ababa and Asmara, having traded barbs for months, may be edging toward war. A distracted world is largely ignoring this brewing crisis, too.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed blames Eritrea for stirring up trouble in his country by training and arming anti-government militias. Eritrea, in turn, paints Ethiopia as the aggressor. Abiy insists that he seeks to end his country’s status as the world’s most populous landlocked country. Asmara worries that he aims to reconquer its ports, to which Ethiopia enjoyed unfettered access before Eritrea’s 1993 secession.